Recent data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system reveals a significant decline in deposits in US commercial banks. Over a three-week period, deposits decreased by $100 billion, raising concerns about the state of the financial sector.
A new survey conducted by the Federal Reserve, which included input from 25 participants including market professionals, academics, investment funds, and research and advisory firms, highlights two key reasons why banks are at risk of another crisis. Firstly, respondents noted that large portions of deposits remain uninsured, making the banking sector susceptible to renewed deposit outflows. Secondly, there are concerns about potential losses on commercial real estate (CRE) exposures, particularly among smaller and regional banks.
The survey participants view small and regional domestic banks as particularly vulnerable due to their higher concentration of CRE exposures. This vulnerability could lead to tighter bank lending conditions, further exacerbating the risks faced by these banks.
The commercial real estate sector is seen as a potential trigger for systemic stress. With higher interest rates and declining demand for office space due to the shift to a hybrid work environment, the sector is facing challenges that could have far-reaching consequences for the financial sector.
The decline in deposits and the concerns highlighted in the survey indicate that the US banking sector is not out of the woods yet. The risks of renewed deposit outflows and potential losses on CRE exposures pose significant challenges. It is crucial for banks, especially smaller and regional ones, to carefully manage these risks and ensure the stability of the financial system.
